The US Presidential Election III - McCain Will Win

The United States Presidential Election entered the last stage. In the article of June 16, ''The US Presidential Election I - Why Americans Refused Hillary Clinton", I pointed that what the US needs now is the leader who can reunite the county. Also, I pointed that Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama both has the makings of it. Because the former 2004 presidential election ended in just a fight between second-rate candidates, the election of this time has warmed up.

Now, which candidate will win the election to be the next US president? Before answering this question, I will review the vice-presidential candidates, who are the partners of the presidential candidates.

At the Democratic National Convention held in August 25 to 28, Senator Barack Obama was nominated for the Democrat presidential candidate and named Senator Joseph Biden for the vice-presidential candidate. On the other hand, Senator John McCain was nominated for the Republican presidential candidate and named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Senator Biden has served as the chairman of the Senate Committee Judiciary and the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, and Governor Palin is the youngest and the first female governor of Alaska. The reason they were named as the vice-presidential candidate is obvious.

Senator Obama became the symbol of change to break the present condition because of his good speech supported by his youth, but his poor experience as a senator is feared as he was elected in 2004. On the other hand, Biden is a representative Democrat middle-of-the-roader who has been served as a Senator since 1973, having held important posts on the US senate.

Also, Senator McCain has large support not only from conservatives but also from liberals because of his long and bipartisan activity on the senate, but he is at the old age of 72, and he is unpopular among conservative hard liners who are normally supporters for Republican. On the other hand, Governor Palin is more popular among conservative hard liners, and she has freshness of youth and the second female vive-presidential candidate.

That is to say, though Senator McCain and Senator Obama both has the makings to reunite the United States, McCain lacks freshness and Obama lacks experience. Both vice-presidential candidates offset their partners' weak points. However, critics say that they wreck their presidential candidates' strong points by contraries. For example, there is a criticism that Senator Biden's too long experience cancels Obama's freshness. Especially, it is a big damage that Biden voted in favor of the Iraq War Resolution in 2002 though Obama has been opposing the Iraq War consistently. Also, there is a criticism that it is just a image tactics to have appointed young and female Sarah Palin though she had nothing to do with the federal politics.

But in fact, Governor Palin has the biggest strong point which the other three don't have. It is the actual experience of administration as a governor. The states which constitute the United States have strong autonomy. Every state has its own constitution, and has all governmental functions except diplomacy and national defense. Therefore, governor of state has authority almost equal to leaders of independent countries. Historically, the royal road to the US presidents has been the position of governor of state, not that of senator. Senator McCain, who is strong in diplomacy and national security, and Governor Palin, who is experienced in internal administration, is ideal pair. And, female and conservative Palin will gather votes from conservative hard liners and former supporters for Hillary Clinton. Especially, the influence of the conservatives in the inland on the result of the election cannot be ignored. By Palin's appearance, McCain will gain lots of their votes.

That is to say, the range of supporters for Barack Obama will not be changed largely by his vice-presidential candidate Joseph Biden, but that for John McCain will largely change by his running mate Sarah Palin.

However, the biggest strong point of John McCain is his bipartisan activity as a senator, which is the reason he is often described as marverick. Though he is a Republican, he was rumored to be the running mate of John Kerry at the 2004 US Presidential Election. The reason is clear. He wrote the legislation that created the 9/11 commission in partnership with Democrat Senator Joseph Lieberman, passed the Feingold-McCain Act that restrains political donation by company with Democrat Senator Russel Feingold by industry, and wrote the legislation that included legalization of illegal immigrants with representative Democrat liberal Senator Edward Kennedy, who has been strong supporter for Barack Obama since the presidential primary. As you see above, McCain has shown what the reunification of the United States is like through his actual action.

On the other hand, Barack Obama started the negative campaign by referring to Palin as "a pig wearing lipstick", which he forbade to himself though he is popular for his speech advocating change and reunification of the country. Furthermore, he has no experience of writing legislation because he spent half of his career as a senate since 2004 for the presidential campaign. Obama is said to be a second Kennedy, but John F. Kennedy had totally 14-year experience as a congressman and a senate. Especially, his active contribution of investigating the connection between the labor union and organized crime under the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, or the McClellan Committee, is notable. Therefore, there is a great difference between Barack Obama and John Kennedy in regard of experience.

From above, I came to conclusion that John McCain will win over Barack Obama.

The US Presidential Election II - The Second Coming of the Nightmare of 40 Years Ago?

In October 27, two white men was arrested for planning the assassination of Senator Barack Obama, the US Democrat candidate for president. In this article, I will discuss the fear of the assassination of Senator Barack Obama.

In May 23, 2008, Senator Hillary Clinton, who was a candidate for the Democrat presidential primary, made a big mistake. At that time, she seemed likely to lose. When she was asked the reason to continue her campaign, she answered that it was also June that Bobby Kennedy was killed.

Bobby Kennedy means former Attorney General Robert Kennedy, who ran for the US presidential election of 40 years ago, and was assassinated just before the Democratic National Convention, where he was believed to be nominated for the Democrat presidential candidate. To be sure, the situation of the election is similar to that of 40 years ago. In 1968, the United States stuck in the mud of the Vietnam War, the world's trust in the US was lost, the sharp drop of the dollar and the depression because of the escalation of the war cost tore the United States. As a result of combination of the anti-war movement and the civil right movement, riots happened all over the country every day.

It was then that Bobby announced his candidacy at the young age of 43 advocating the unification of the country and the immediate withdrawal from Vietnam. His experience as a Senator was just 3 and half years, but he had a record as the Attorney General of exercising all authority of the Federal Government to solve the racial problem under the Kennedy Administration.  So he had big supports from wide range of races. He was assassinated in June 5, just after winning the largest state California primary, which ensured the nomination for the Democrat presidential candidate.

It is obvious that such situation is very similar to that where Barack Obama appeared on the presidential election. Now US's international position is declining because of the deadlock of the Iraq War, and the country is almost under disruption. In such condition, Barack Obama appeared on the stage at the young age of 46 advocating the unification of the country and the immediate withdrawal from Iraq. Furthermore, he has the racial handicap that he is the first Afro-American presidential candidate. It is because Obama has the quality common to Jack and Bobby Kennedy that the members of the Kennedy family and the former aides under the Kennedy Administration announce their supports for him.

Then, How strong is the possibility of the assassination of Barack Obama? The answer is it is very bare. To be sure, the situation is very similar to that of 40 years ago. However, the United States has largely changed for 40 years. The assassination of Kennedy brothers, Martin Luther King, and the racial problem are now remembered as nightmares in the American modern history. Most of the American people think that those events were blots in history which must not be recurred. And Politicians and government officials has the same feeling. If the same things recur, the world's trust in the US will surely collapse. Nobody in the US hopes such thing.

Of course, as there are fanatics in every country, there are the groups that aim at the assassination of Obama for the racial reason. At this time, however, the resolution of the United States will not allow them.