12.03.2008

TOYOTA's Future

On November 6, the Toyota Motor Corporation cut down the estimate of consolidated acccounting for 2009. The result was 73.6% down fron the previous term. The following day, the Nikkei average in the Tokyo exchange market dropped so sharply that it was temporarily 633 yens down from the previous day. This phenomenon was named the "Toyota Shock".

The reasons for Toyota's downward revision were slackening in the North American market as well as the loss of dollar's and Euro's depreciation due to the global financial crisis. Actually, it is becuase the sales in the North American market which Toyota has been tapping by active global development was going well that Toyota has been making a good sales record while the domestic market was diminishing. At present, Toyota is trying to raise the automobile demand by the zero interest rate loan and the release of low price city car,Toyota iQ. However, the profit rates of these are so low that the total recovery is quite difficult.

So, Toyota is now working on the project named the "Innovative International Multi-purpose Vehicle", or "IMV". This strategy makes the profit free from the demand in each country and the exchange market because overseas bases provide the components and the products mutually in this strategy. It is the strategy for the developing countries. where the automobile demand will keep growing.

Also, Toyota has the project of the plug-in hybrid vehicle, or PHV, for the developed countries. This vehicle, which you can charge by the home electricity,  is going to be release in 2009. It is expected to promote replacement of gasoline engine vehicle and diesel engine vehicle.

Still, there is a perspective that the automobile market is already finishing its growth. For more sustainable growth, Toyota must change over its priority from automobile. Is toyota prepared for that change?

The answer is "Yes". First, Toyota may challenge the aerospace industry. The symptom is the investment in the project of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet, or MRJ, by the Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation, which is the subsidiary of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. Originally Toyota was seeking the way to the aircraft industry in its starting period. However, the production of the military tracks were preceded under the war economy during World War II so the aircraft project was suspended. After that, while Toyota was suffering from the danger of bankrupt due to the post-war depression, the dream for aircraft was forgotten. The investment in the MRJ may be a big step for the dream in its starting period.

 The aerospace industry was diminishing these days because of the fear of international terrorism, the high crude oil price, and the depression due to the global financial crisis. But it is just a temporary tendency because it is a historic trend that the exchange of people, materials, money, information will accelerate much more by globalization. Especially, the Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd, of which Toyota is the primary stockholder, has the aerospace section. It will be a strong asset when Toyota participate in the aerospace industry in the future.

Second, Toyota has the potential to become a excellent management consulting company. There are many companies in Japan that send their members to learn the Toyota Production System, or TPS. And, this trend is now spreading to overseas. The giant in the aerospace industry sent their members to Toyota to learn the TPS for the project of its new aircraft Boeing 787.

Boeing used to control the development of all components directly by directing its subcontractors in detail. However, as s result of learning the TPS, Boeing is now leaving its partners even the design of the components. Boeing can now concentrate on the key technology and play a role as the integrator who integrates the whole project, unlike what it used to do. This new method enable it to lower the cost of development and to enrich the key elements necessary to differentiate its products from those of its rivals. The main keywords of the TPS, such as "Just in Time", "Kaizen", "Kanban", have become the english words of global standard in economic area.

It is not only to the manufacturing industry that the TPS is now applied. De-industrialization is essential for the developed countries to keep their sustainable progress. That is the fate of the developed countries. However, Toyota can survive and even progress as an excellent management consulting company in the 21st century.