The Trend toward Global Cooling?

On November 18, the first snow and the first frost were observed among many parts of Japan. The first snow was observed earlier than usual in a broad range of areas in Japan although it was observed later than usual in some high latitudes such as Sapporo in Hokkaido and and in some mountainous areas. In recent years, the snow has been rarely observed in most of the flat areas of Japan in November. This trend is not confined to Japan. In London, it snowed in October for the first time in 74 years since 1934. Why is it so early to get cold in a broad range of areas in the world? It seemed to be because there were many cloudy or rainy days from spring to summer this year. So, what made so much cloud arise this year? The cause can be seen in the solar activity.

From last year to this year, the number of the sunspots has been in minimum. The number of the sunspots indicates the solar activity. When the solar activity diminishes, the solar wind, which is the rapid flow of plasma shot from the solar surface, gets weaker. The solar wind pushes back the cosmic ray from outside the solar system. That is that the more the solar activity diminishes, to the more cosmic ray Earth gets explosed.

The cosmic ray is also the rapid flow of plasma. Once the cosmic ray comes in the atmosphere of Earth, it inonizes the atoms in the atmosphere. Then, the ionized atoms act as the condensation nuclei, and more cloud gets formed.
This mechanism is called the Svensmark effect named after a Danish physicist Henrik Svensmark, which is still no more than a hypothesis. In a short words, when the solar activity diminishes, the more cosmic ray come into the atmosphere, and more cloud gets formed.

Therefore, it is natural that it is cool all over the world this year. The last year was notable for the heat waves, but it might have been a temporary phenomenon caused by La Niña. If so, it is not entirely inconceivable that Earth is heading for global cooling. Of course it is possible that the cold waves of this year is also just a temporary phenomenon.

Thus, there are many factors on global climate. We need to take all these factors into consideration on discussing climate change.

Will the United States Make the Same Mistake as the Past World Empires?

In my previous article, I pointed that a serious problem lurks in the US behind the election of Barack Obama. That is that the rise of the conservative hard liners came to the surface under the Bush Administration. They rather blindly believe in their own dogma than tackle actual problems rationally. They do not try to have dialog with those who have different opinions. This means the crisis in democracy that is the philosophy of the American politics because the essence of democracy is not just the majority decision but the decision through the free and open discussion between those who have different opinions. Obama gained a wide range of supports by advocating the unification of the country, but the possibility cannot be overlooked that the serious confrontation arises as some of conservative hard liners resist the birth of the first black president. 

The US has been reigning as the leader of the world for about 60 years since World War II. However, each of the past great world empires such as the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and the British Empire declined after all. Will the US make the same mistake as the past great world empires?  In fact, the symptom seems to be coming to the surface.

The cause of it is the Iraq War. As the Bush Administration started the Iraq War with public opinion still divided, the confrontation between the supporters and the opponents has become quite serious and the crack between them has escalated to almost an unrestorable level. As a result, both of them shuts their ears to each other and dialog between them has been lost. That is the crisis in democracy. Also, as the Iraq War has sticked in the mud, the international prestige of the US has seriously damaged. At present, there are few countries that have trust i the US. Furthermore, the recession that originated from the subprime shock has escalated to a global financial crisis by the bankrupt of the Lehman Brothers in September this year. It seems certain that the US is heading for its decline.

However, we cannot make light of the US. In the past, the US has experienced similar crises many times. But, every time it faced a national crisis, a strong leader such as Lincoln, Roosevelt, Kennedy, Reagan appeared to overcome it. Whenever the country drops into a crisis, such  a strong leader appears to overcome it. That is the American history.

Why is it possible? The biggest difference between the past hegemony countries and the US is that the US is the only ideal country, which is formed not by ethnicity but by ideals, in the hegemony countries that have ever existed. The US could gather diverse talents from all over the world because it is the country based on ideals which attract people all over the world where ethnicity does not matter. Therefore, self-purification functions in the US and it could and can keep the position as a superpower although it sometimes drops into arrogance and self-satisfaction. Moreover, the US is the only ideal country that has never collapsed. In the past, too, there were some countries based not on ethnicity but on ideals such as the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia. But they have lasted for less than 100 years and finally they has collapsed. This fact shows the difficulty in keeping the country not based on ethnicity. However, the US has overcome that difficulty by openness and dynamism originating from it. This is the difference from the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia.

In this election, too, a strong leader appeared to overcome the present crisis. That is shown in the highest poll rate after World War II, that is 64.1%. Incidentally, 1960's election has the second highest poll rate after W.W.II, and in that election a strong leader Kennedy became the president. In fact, the election of this year showed a surge of American people. That is not only because of the hope for the change the President-elect Obama advocated, but also because his counterpart John McCain was a marvelous statesman worth the presidency. In fact, McCain's graceful defeat address was enough to make us expect a forward change in the US. To be sure, it is a inevitable way if the US fall into disorder by the birth of the first black president. However, he fight between Obama and McCain was enough marvelous to make us feel that the US will go over that hardship. 

However, there are other fears by the birth of President Obama. The first fear is that Obama may return to protectionism following the traditional Democratic ideology. Globalization of economy is now essential both to developed countries and to developing countries for their progress. Developed countries needs foreign developing markets because their domestic markets will not expand largely. Developing countries need technology suppliers and their export destinations to catch up developed countries. If Obama turns to protectionism, the US international competitiveness will rapidly deteriorate, and the negative impact will rebound on the US domestic economy. Also, we should not forget the history that bloc economy leaded to World War II.

The second fear is that the US prestige may deteriorate much more as the young new president who does not have enough experience gets made light of by hostile countries. It is clear that the US must return ton international cooperation and Obama is seen to take the US diplomacy toward this direction. However, the purpose of international cooperation must be pursuit for the national interest by recovering the world's faith in the US. If the US make a one-way concession without considering the purpose, the hostile countries which hold international problems such as Iran or North Korea will strengthen their influence. If so, the world order will collapse and the international trust in the US will fall down. It is unsure whether Obama has a comparable ability to McCain, who is strong for diplomacy, national security, and military affairs. McCain said in his defeat address that he would support Obama leading the country. McCain will be the most earnest criticizer and cooperator for President Obama.

The US Presidential Election IV - The Problem in the US Seen through McCain's Defeat

On November 4, a long fight came to an end. In the US Presidential Election, the Democrat candidate Senator Barack Obama defeated the Republican candidate Senator John McCain for the 44th the President of the United States, against my prospect of McCain's victory. At this time, I will discuss the cause of McCain's defeat not only because it is the responsibility of who made a mistaken prediction, but also because it will show the problem the US has now.

The biggest reason for McCain's defeat was that he failed in unifying the Republicans. It was Colin Powell's annoucement of the support for Barack Obama that symbolized it. On the other hand, Barack Obama succeeded in uniting the Democrats by October although the Democratic Primary had been dragged until June. Why McCain failled? The reason becomes clear when you see his some supporters during the campaign.

Originally, McCain takes a liberal stance in the Republic Party. Therefore, it was expected that he could gather a wide support from the centrists and the realists. But he was not expected to be supported from the hard liners, who had remarkable influence on the election of George W. Bush. Therefore, he appointed the Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin. After her appointment, McCain leaded Obama in the Gallup poll. I thought that McCain's victory became sure, but it seems to have been a failure.

There were some fanatics in McCain's supporters who shouted "Kill Obama!" during McCain's speech. After McCain calmed them, they started booing at him. Liberals and centrists felt their danger. That is why McCain lost the supports from liberals which was his biggest strong point.

This is an extreme example. However, there is also a more moderate example that shows the inflexibility of the Republican consevertives. That is the financial crisis that accelerated since the bankrupt of Lehman Brothers in September. The Bush Administration reacted at once, and proposed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. However, it was once rejected by the House of the Representatives. This rejection was alomost by Republican congressmen because the bailout is strongly against their traditional sense of value, the small government. They chose to adhere to fundamentalism, not to solve the present problem flexibly. McCain made every effort for the legislation of the act, but he could not persuade his party.

Among the present Republican conservatives, there are increasing who adhere to the ideologistic and abstract slogans, not to the practical policy. Such attitude leaded to the Iraq War. The neo-con made a mistake because they adhered not to the realistic diplomacy for the nationatl interest, but to their dogmatic ideal of spreading democracy to all over the world. Also, among the Republican supporters, there are increasing the influence of the Christian right who insist that schools should teach the Intelligent Design theory denying geology and Darwin's evolution theory.

It seems because of the cautiousness against the rise of the fundamentalism such as the Christian right that Colin Powell announced his support for Barack Obama although his stance is more closer to McCain.

In the end of October, the racist group was arrested for planning the assassination of Barack Obama. I cannot help feeling that dark clouds hung heavily over the American future while the whole country is up about the birth of the third youngest and the first black President.