Will the United States Make the Same Mistake as the Past World Empires?

In my previous article, I pointed that a serious problem lurks in the US behind the election of Barack Obama. That is that the rise of the conservative hard liners came to the surface under the Bush Administration. They rather blindly believe in their own dogma than tackle actual problems rationally. They do not try to have dialog with those who have different opinions. This means the crisis in democracy that is the philosophy of the American politics because the essence of democracy is not just the majority decision but the decision through the free and open discussion between those who have different opinions. Obama gained a wide range of supports by advocating the unification of the country, but the possibility cannot be overlooked that the serious confrontation arises as some of conservative hard liners resist the birth of the first black president. 

The US has been reigning as the leader of the world for about 60 years since World War II. However, each of the past great world empires such as the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and the British Empire declined after all. Will the US make the same mistake as the past great world empires?  In fact, the symptom seems to be coming to the surface.

The cause of it is the Iraq War. As the Bush Administration started the Iraq War with public opinion still divided, the confrontation between the supporters and the opponents has become quite serious and the crack between them has escalated to almost an unrestorable level. As a result, both of them shuts their ears to each other and dialog between them has been lost. That is the crisis in democracy. Also, as the Iraq War has sticked in the mud, the international prestige of the US has seriously damaged. At present, there are few countries that have trust i the US. Furthermore, the recession that originated from the subprime shock has escalated to a global financial crisis by the bankrupt of the Lehman Brothers in September this year. It seems certain that the US is heading for its decline.

However, we cannot make light of the US. In the past, the US has experienced similar crises many times. But, every time it faced a national crisis, a strong leader such as Lincoln, Roosevelt, Kennedy, Reagan appeared to overcome it. Whenever the country drops into a crisis, such  a strong leader appears to overcome it. That is the American history.

Why is it possible? The biggest difference between the past hegemony countries and the US is that the US is the only ideal country, which is formed not by ethnicity but by ideals, in the hegemony countries that have ever existed. The US could gather diverse talents from all over the world because it is the country based on ideals which attract people all over the world where ethnicity does not matter. Therefore, self-purification functions in the US and it could and can keep the position as a superpower although it sometimes drops into arrogance and self-satisfaction. Moreover, the US is the only ideal country that has never collapsed. In the past, too, there were some countries based not on ethnicity but on ideals such as the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia. But they have lasted for less than 100 years and finally they has collapsed. This fact shows the difficulty in keeping the country not based on ethnicity. However, the US has overcome that difficulty by openness and dynamism originating from it. This is the difference from the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia.

In this election, too, a strong leader appeared to overcome the present crisis. That is shown in the highest poll rate after World War II, that is 64.1%. Incidentally, 1960's election has the second highest poll rate after W.W.II, and in that election a strong leader Kennedy became the president. In fact, the election of this year showed a surge of American people. That is not only because of the hope for the change the President-elect Obama advocated, but also because his counterpart John McCain was a marvelous statesman worth the presidency. In fact, McCain's graceful defeat address was enough to make us expect a forward change in the US. To be sure, it is a inevitable way if the US fall into disorder by the birth of the first black president. However, he fight between Obama and McCain was enough marvelous to make us feel that the US will go over that hardship. 

However, there are other fears by the birth of President Obama. The first fear is that Obama may return to protectionism following the traditional Democratic ideology. Globalization of economy is now essential both to developed countries and to developing countries for their progress. Developed countries needs foreign developing markets because their domestic markets will not expand largely. Developing countries need technology suppliers and their export destinations to catch up developed countries. If Obama turns to protectionism, the US international competitiveness will rapidly deteriorate, and the negative impact will rebound on the US domestic economy. Also, we should not forget the history that bloc economy leaded to World War II.

The second fear is that the US prestige may deteriorate much more as the young new president who does not have enough experience gets made light of by hostile countries. It is clear that the US must return ton international cooperation and Obama is seen to take the US diplomacy toward this direction. However, the purpose of international cooperation must be pursuit for the national interest by recovering the world's faith in the US. If the US make a one-way concession without considering the purpose, the hostile countries which hold international problems such as Iran or North Korea will strengthen their influence. If so, the world order will collapse and the international trust in the US will fall down. It is unsure whether Obama has a comparable ability to McCain, who is strong for diplomacy, national security, and military affairs. McCain said in his defeat address that he would support Obama leading the country. McCain will be the most earnest criticizer and cooperator for President Obama.